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Raw Materials Foresight Guide
Documentation
22
Methods & Tools
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22
Methods & Tools
Serious Gaming Method
Scenario Development Method
System Dynamic Modelling
Wild-Cards and Weak Signals
Delphi Surveys
Idea Network
Material and Substance Flow Analysis (M/SFA)
Genius Forecasting Method
The Future Wheels
DPSIR Framework
Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)
SWOT analysis
Mind-mapping
Agent-based modelling (ABM) method
Morphological Analysis Method
Back-casting
Cross-impact analysis (CIA)
Trend Extrapolation
STEEP(LED) Analysis
Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA)
Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)
Citizens’ panel or Focus Groups
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Documentation
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1
Documentation
The VERAM H2020 project: looking toward 2050…
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Legislation
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Legislation
17
Data
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17
Data
General Morphological Analysis. A general method for non-quantified modeling
European Foresight Platform - FLA Mapping Environment
Futures Research Methodology (Delphi)
JRC Raw Materials Information System
Delphi-Methode. Gestaltung und Potential für betriebliche Prognoseprozesse
Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis
Future of Manufacturing Project: Evidence Paper 27 Foresight, Government Office for Science, The future impact of materials security on the UK manufacturing industry
Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Future Studies using Morphological Analysis
Guidelines for quantitative risk assessment
Future subjunctive: backcasting as social learning
JRC European Commission FOR-LEARN webpage: Online Foresight Guide
SWOT analysis of concepts, methods and models potentially supporting LCA
Cross-Impact Method - A publication of United Nations Development Program's African Futures Project in collaboration with the United Nations University's Millenium Project Feasibility Study - Phase II
Delphi und Kognitionspsychologie: Ein Zugang zur theoretischen Fundierung der Delphi-Methode
Causal Layered Analysis - Deepening the future
International Raw Materials Observatory (INTRAW)
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Portal
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Portal
8
Articles & Reports
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8
Articles & Reports
DERA Report 2016: Rohstoffe fur Zukunftstechnologien 2016
LCA of metals: a scientific synthesis
Polinares - EU policy on mineral resources - Summary of project results published
Mining economist opinions on using multi-agent methodology to simulate metal markets
Global critical materials markets: An agent-based modeling approach
Process knowledge, system dynamics and metal ecology.
Substitution of critical raw materials in low-carbon technologies
Prospective analysis of the world lithium market: contribution to the evaluation of supply shortage
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Other
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Other
9
Question
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9
Question
Which minerals will become critical in 30 years and where can we find them?
How much is expected to be reused or recycled?
What are the different forecasting methods and their use?
Which method could be used for an analysis of factors, drivers, impacts, challenges, ...?
Which method could be used in the decision-making process?
What is the future availability of a specific metal?
How much of commodity x will Europe be producing in year x?
Should the EU invest/investigate in getting more mines in Europe?
How will the future supply and demand of future raw materials develop?
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FlowSheet
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2
FlowSheet
How to estimate the future availability of a specific metal?
Trying to predict which minerals will become critical in 30 years and then, where to find them?